The past few months have been a roller coaster for me. Due to my leveraged short positions, I had made initial significant profits. However, all these profits were wiped out, and then some due to the recent rally in the stock market. It has been a stressful and shell-shocking experience for me. There have been days where I could not sleep due to the massive losses I was staring at.
I have to start all over again. I cannot give up. Not now.
Watch this space, I will be back. Never give up!
This has been a really long overdue post. I haven’t had the time to blog actively, but I have been pretty active with my investments. Sad to say, my strategy to concentrate hasn’t really worked out as I am sitting on pretty big losses in my ill-timed investment into Weibo Corp. Throughout this period, I have realised that I continue to worry when my big positions go underwater, a sign that I should perhaps diversify more. My dabbles in options selling and speculating in VIX positions have performed really poorly as well. With that, I’m slowly shifting back to how I invested in the past, which is primarily premised on the following principles:
1) Diversification
To cap my concentration in a stock to not more than 10% of my portfolio to avoid any over-confidence bias and a huge setback due to a very real possibility of me being wrong.
2) Keeping Investing Simple
By buying simple businesses which I understand, run by management I deem as competent and honest, at fair prices.
3) Stay Invested
Let time compound the winners, and do not try to predict how the market will move in the short term.
4) Avoid mistakes
Mistakes like overtrading, speculating, overconcentration, dabbling in derivatives have shown to work against me than for me. This might probably be the hardest thing for me to do, but something that I have to be disciplined against if I want to improve my performance as an investor.
The economy does not look too good now, especially in light of the US-China Trade War. In the short run, I aim to cut my losses on all my speculative positions, and close my options trading account to refocus on keeping investing simple.
Till the next time!
Looking back on the past year, 2018 has been a rough year of sorts. My speculation in cryptocurrencies did not end well, where we saw Bitcoin and Ethereum peaking early this year followed by a crash soon after. I have cut my losses, which I estimate to be around 88%. This represents the greatest loss I have ever made monetarily. Though it still is a large loss, my overall portfolio is not devastated as I limited my purchase only to an amount I was comfortable with. Stock markets in Asia were also roiled by many events, mainly the uncertainty caused by the US – China trade spat, along with economic worries stemming from rising interest rates. My investments in Chinese tech stocks also took a beating, with my options strategy losing money as well. Nevertheless, as the amount of money allocated to US stocks and options trading is big but not as significant as my Singapore portfolio, I can still recover from this. I have decided that options trading or options investing as some call it, is not for me as my temperament is not suited for such a strategy at the current moment.
My local portfolio (2017 – 2018) was not spared either, with my overall stock portfolio dropping -16.68% compared to the STI Index’s return of -7.57%. This resulted in an underperformance of 9.11%.
On 5/9/18, I sold my stake in Cityneon at $1.15, giving me a gain of 6.25%. I decided to sell Cityneon as I was not confident that tourists would pay a high price for their attractions, coupled with low reviews online and their high gearing. Nevertheless, Cityneon would continue to climb soon after due to an offer by its majority shareholders at $1.30 a share. On 19/9/18, I also sold out of Sunpower Group at $0.56, giving me a loss of 7.3%. I was starting to get nervous about the validity of its financials, along with the complicated convertible bonds that it had. On 10/12/18 and 11/12/18, I sold off my stake in China Sunsine at $1.28 and $1.29, giving me a tiny profit of 0.33%. China Sunsine was my second largest holding after AEM. Similar to Sunpower Group, I was starting to get uncomfortable with the legitimacy of its financials and management. The stock remains largely undervalued but I prefer to err on the side of caution. Despite the poor trades mentioned above, my continued bets into AEM and ill-timed investment into APAC Realty were the main contributors of the lousy performance. Due to my previous purchases of AEM at much higher prices, my original profits were eroded. I still managed to come out green as my initial stake was purchased at a fraction of what it is trading today. On 21/12/18, I sold off my stake in AEM at $0.835, giving me an overall gain of 25.43%. This has been my largest profit till date, and would have been much more if I had just held onto my original investment from the start. I sold off because I did not fully understand its business and was uncomfortable with its lack of visibility in sales orders. Moreover, management’s original belief that the company was at the start of a multi-year ramp up of its products turned out to be quite inaccurate. For APAC Realty, I bought into it just before the new property measures saw its stock hammered by the market. I can only attribute this to misfortune as such events are not predictable, but there are definitely lessons which I can learn from this trade. On the other hand, Best World International continued to soar after my sale, which would have been a multi-bagger if I had held onto it. Not that I am rueing my loss, but I realized that my temperament was moving away from companies which I am unable to ascertain its business operations, to companies which I can safely say are doing well. My investment into Cromwell Reit was also pretty ill-timed, just before it issued rights for an acquisition. The rights issue also didn’t turn out the way I envisioned it to, where I listened to my broker’s advice to take up less rights to avoid high commission costs in the event where the rights are not given. It turned out that there were many investors on InvestingNote who claimed that they were able to secure large amounts of rights with a smaller base of shares than me. Currently, this position is sitting at a significant loss, but since this is a position which I intend to sit and hold for the long term, I will wait for the dividends to work its reduce my average holding cost. It seems like 2018 was a year where I made many mistakes in my trades, but there remain a few bright spots. I managed to get out of Memtech and Sunpower Group at a small loss before its stock crashed for the same reason I got out of China Sunsine – my discomfort in the legitimacy of its financials and management.
The biggest lesson for me this year would be a greater discovery of my temperament and investing style. I find myself slowing moving away from high growth companies to more stable, dividend plays with a large margin of safety imbued in its share price. I missed out on investing in Jardine C&C when it was hovering around $27, as I waited for its price to move to $26 – when I had earlier told myself to buy in when it went below $30. It’s a classic example of fear and penny pinching at play, when one does not garner enough courage to act upon his analysis for fear of being wrong – in which the price continues its downtrend. Another example was AirAsia, where I missed out on pulling the trigger when the price went near RM2. It subsequently bounced back up to RM3 towards the end of the year. The last example was Cromwell Reit where I waited patiently for the price to hit Euro 0.41 only to be stopped out by my buy limit. By the time approval was granted, the price had recovered back to Euro 0.44.
Although 2018 has been a lousy year for my portfolio, there is always something to take away. Some are new lessons, some are old which needs constant reminding:
Apart from my finances, there have also been a few big events in my life in 2018. Some are fleeting moments of pride and glory, some, moments which will forever be etched in your heart.
That about sums up my year in 2018. Much learnt, much lost, much gained. Guess that’s what makes life an experience like no other. I’m a grateful and blessed man.
It is 2.12 am as I write this. As I had difficulty sleeping, I decided to pen down some of the thoughts that have been running through my head. Life seems to have accelerated so much since 2014. Ever since I came back from my exchange in Thailand and starting to prepare for graduation, life has indeed become so much richer. What, then do I mean by richer? To some, being richer might simply mean having more money in their bank; being able to afford that flashy car and house, or being successful in the corporate world. On the contrary, being richer is to me, not a financial state, but rather the experience of life’s moments in its varying vicissitudes. During the past 3 years, I have experienced pain, loss, betrayal, spite and failure to great extent, both in my private and work life. However, during the same three years, I have also felt joy, hope, loyalty, respect and success. It is this roller coaster of emotions that makes life so much richer. Can the peaks of life be truly savoured if one has never been in the valley? I doubt so. Failure makes success all the more sweeter. Ever felt that soothing sensation when you popped a sweet in your mouth after taking some bitter medicine before? If you have, you’ll know what I mean.
In 2013, a good friend of mine contracted a debilitating illness that essentially damaged extensively his ability to think and speak. He was 25. It was this first hand experience that struck me that life is really fragile. When we really feel the brevity of our lives, do we then start to observe that time passes so, so quickly. It literally flies by. Our choices on what to pursue and make out of life then, becomes so much more important. Your time is limited; some more so than others. And when we all come to die, as all must and will, our accomplishments and titles will not mean as much then. Death is a common destination we all share, and our names will be forgotten in time to come. Does it make much difference if we are a million richer than our neighbours? Or will it matter if we are sitting on a higher position than our peers? Honestly, no one cares. Neither should we harbour too much bitterness against loved ones and friends who have done us wrong. Forgiveness is a powerful teacher. Kindness knows no limits. It is only with the extension of love and kindness to others, does life then seem so much more meaningful.
I want to live a life of meaning. A rich life. Question is, what about you?
Have a blessed week ahead.
Today, I went to repair my bike which I bought a few months ago. Turns out that the previous owner did some nasty things to the bike which caused a couple of safety breaches and thus incurring a heavy repair price tag. I was pretty upset thinking about the amount of money I had to fork out to fix my ride, as I thought I had gotten a good deal at the price I bought. It affected me all the way home, as I had already spent a considerable amount of money to renew the COE for another 10 years.
At the same time, a couple of comparisons regarding peers in the day made me wonder whether my decision to work in my current industry was the right one. As I spaced out, it suddenly hit me…that I was still alive and well. And that alone was something to give thanks for. At that moment, I felt contented.
Looking back at the year, I realise that I have lots to be thankful for. To be able to continue pursuing my dreams healthily and to have loved ones by my side is something I am grateful for. I have witnessed close friends being mentally incapacitated indefinitely and attended the wakes of others who gave up on life too early. There are also many others who do not even have the same opportunities at life as I do. This is a good reminder for me not to compare myself to others and to stop being too uptight with money. Life is indeed short. Treasure it. Live it.
“You only live once. But if you do it right, once is enough.” – Mae West
Just today, I gleaned a couple of lessons. I had fixed an appointment with a friend at 11 in the morning, but found myself procrastinating and only managed to get out of my bed at around 9.50am despite being awake since 8.30am. It usually takes me 1 hr 15 mins to get to town by public transport, and I had not yet washed up and dressed. Obviously, I was going to be late by at least half an hour. I realised that I had the tendency of arriving late at appointments, and it was not a trait that I was proud of. Frustrated, I decided that I had enough with this negative habit and that I was going to start being punctual for any appointment. After washing up, I took a cab down and arrived on the dot. The trip down cost me quite a bit, and knowing my aversion to spend on unnecessary comforts, it did hurt. It was a painful lesson, but I deserved it and knew that my punctuality was more important. I made the mental note that I would continue to take cabs to be on time if I had to. Hopefully, the thought of unnecessary spending would aid me in breaking this bad habit of mine. My friend arrived 15 minutes later than me, and I was certain he would not mind waiting another 15 mins for me if I had taken public transport. Nonetheless, I believe my word and commitment is more important, and being punctual is a form of respect to the other party. I just hope that I don’t need many cab rides to maintain this good habit.
We had a simple meal, followed by some shopping for fishing materials before heading to the river to fish. Today was the first time I fished in a long while, and it was good to start from zero all over again. I learnt the basics like how to set the hook, and casting, along with the different artificial baits that we used. I find fishing useful for training one’s discipline and patience. It is pretty similar to the world of investing, where discipline and patience are two vital traits one needs to succeed. One has to prepare well beforehand, and wait patiently for the fish to bite. Similarly, one needs to do his research well and invest only when the price is right. Although we did not manage to catch any fish, I took away a more valuable lesson. Certainly, I am looking forward to more fishing trips.
The last thing that I would like to do more of is to take better care of my health and body. I have noticed that I have started to worry too much about the future, which has caused unwanted anxiety and stress. I find that sometimes I try to save on food only to spend more on medical bills when I fall sick. As such, I have decided to eat well and live well. One area that I am looking into is the practising of mindfulness, which is a mental state of only focusing on the present. In conjunction with that, I am trying to incorporate the habit of gratitude into my daily life. Indeed, yesterday was history, today is a gift, tomorrow is a mystery. Let the future worry about itself.
If we want to improve our lives, then we should all start breaking bad habits and forming better ones.
Recently, I have decided to be more selective of the type of investing events I attend, after participating in a recent summit which I found to be not worth the time and money. I am starting to find such events repetitive and simplistic, with a heavy dose of promoting one’s own resources in a strong marketing strategy. One of the reasons why I attended was to find out whether the speakers had any stock tips for the current year, something I believe most who went wanted as well. In retrospect, I realise that it is a very lazy form of thinking on my part, and makes me no different from those who go from one hot tip to another without doing my own due diligence. Nevertheless, events like these may still be beneficial for those who have just started out investing.
In the last two years, I have been reading the blogs and articles of many well-known investing bloggers, and have invested in the same stocks as them at certain times, only to cut my losses when the stock moved down heavily. It was only last year that I realised that what works for one may not work for another, as the temperament of each individual investor is different. As such, I embarked on my own journey at self discovery, and started to pick stocks on my own after doing my own research. I feel that it is time for me to step out of my comfort zone fully this year, and listen more to my own observation and judgement. I remain grateful to those who have aided me in my investing journey so far, as I believe that every article, book, or event attended played a part in my learning. I will still continue to seek out good learning opportunities, as it is a lifelong process, but I hope to refrain from the venomous habit of hunting for hot tips in the market.
“You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else.” – Warren Buffet
When evaluating a stock, one has to consider both qualitative and quantitative factors. The qualitative factors tend to be regarding the business model of the company, its risks and opportunities as well as the quality of its products. As such, it can be really subjective. In this regard, I find the quantitative factors quicker and easier to analyze as figures do not lie (unless they are being manipulated, which in this case qualitative factors like the quality of its management would come into play). However, it is important not to be blinded by numbers alone, as numbers on its own do not tell the whole story.
When I was starting out, I used alot of financial metrics like ROA, ROE, debt to equity, increasing trend of sales and earnings, etc. to filter stocks. These churned out a number of companies of which many turned out to be solid businesses. Convicted by many of their financials, I paid less attention to the qualitative side. This proved to be a costly mistake. Some which I have personally invested in are China Minzhong, Food Empire and Challenger Technologies. All three companies had strong financials, growth, and a sturdy balance sheet. However, I did not understand the risks of each investment completely. In China Minzhong, I did not understand the industry, its competitors, and the quality of its goods. For Food Empire, I did not comprehend fully the currency and country risks of the business itself. Its two main markets were Russia and Ukraine, and as such, the performance of the business could be affected by political situations, along with economic problems. We have seen how the Russian rouble depreciated massively against the USD this year due to political issues and the tanking of oil prices, which brought turmoil to the oil industry – a major contributor to Russia’s economy. As for Challenger Technologies, I was able to pay visits to its stores, and get a first hand feel of its business and products, but I did not fully apprehend the risk of online retail. Granted, all three may still be great businesses to some, and better investments to others, but the point I would like to highlight would be that qualitative analysis is crucial in any investment.
In 2014, we have seen how companies with fantastic financials perform badly, for eg. Biosensors International, Cordlife Group. I had been keeping up with these two companies for their strong financials but I was not able to understand their business model from a qualitative standpoint. I had no experience with the medical industry, and thus it was not in my circle of competence to analyze Biosensors. As for Cordlife, I have had exposure to its products but could not understand the complexity of their investments and holdings in other associates. Moreover, their deal with CCBC was confusing to me. It is important to understand what one is getting into, and if things seem too hard to understand, it might just be better to stay away.
Saying ‘no’ to an investment when you are unsure of it qualitatively is an important thing we all need to practise if we are to get better at investing. In essence, always ask yourself – “What’s the story?” behind this investment before pulling the trigger.
This year was a landmark year for me, in terms of the life lessons gleaned. A friend whom I considered one of my closest in university had a difficult battle with a brain virus and is now bedridden at home. Doctors say he is unlikely to recover and chances are he will remain mentally incapacitated for life. This affected me greatly as I witnessed firsthand how fragile life really is. This incident has inscribed in me the importance of contentment. Every second here on earth is a gift that we should never take for granted. Being a very impatient and ambitious person, I am starting to learn how to live in the present and to enjoy every moment in my life, instead of living life always planning for the future.
A culmination of factors also led me to a period of mild depression, where I found no purpose in my life. All along, I had obediently followed the standard pathway of a Singaporean son, completing my high school, followed by national service, and then university; only to realise at the end of it, that I still had not found what I wanted to do with my life. Peers were landing jobs, rushing to build their careers, and starting to build families, while I was living off my savings and part-time work to payback my university loan. I constantly looked to others and compared myself to them, only to find myself even more upset. It took me a few months, but I finally realised and understood that comparing ourselves to others is futile. Everyone has their own paths to take in life; one path can never be the same as the other, and we should not use money or social status to judge the progress one has made in their own lives. Being contented with what one has and being a good steward of our resources is more important.
My birthday this year was perhaps, the simplest one I ever had. In fact, I never even noticed it coming, until I was wished by friends. A simple meal of soya chicken rice alone for lunch and a family dinner was more than enough for me to give thanks for. I enjoyed the company of my close friends, of which at this stage in life, could be counted with one hand. Nevertheless, I can hardly remember any other birthdays in which I was any happier.
Earning a meagre wage, facing an unstable situation, and a lack of social interaction was a triple whammy, but being grateful for life itself gave me a new perspective, and an undeniable inner joy. “Take your time, don’t live too fast”, for we might end up like the poem below:
“First I was dying to finish high school and start college.
And then I was dying to finish college and start working.
And then I was dying to marry and have children.
And then I was dying for my children to grow old enough for school so I could return to work.
And then I was dying to retire.
And now I am dying…
And suddenly I realise I forgot to live.”
~ Anonymous
Truly, it’s the not the end, but the journey that matters. I used to rush everything I was doing, but now I’m trying to enjoy the process. A simple example would be my past focus on getting to my next task on my to-do list, rather than embracing the actual task at hand. Let’s learn to take life one step at a time, and to treasure each moment that it brings. Wishing everyone a blessed Christmas and a great year to come! 🙂
If I was to sum up one key investing lesson I learnt this year, it would be the Margin of Safety concept. Investing without a margin of safety gives little room for error, and puts one in a dangerous position. Below are some of the lessons learnt with regards to having a Margin of Safety in investing:
1. Money not invested is not lost – Many of us rue our chances and regret not taking the plunge before the prices of the stocks in our watchlist shoot up, but I believe it is important to remember that money not invested is not lost. There will always be opportunities to find good deals if we are patient and observant.
2. Do not overpay for growth – Overpaying for growth is another dangerous thing to do, as the stock might suffer a double whammy in a re-rating of its PE and a drop in profits; leading to a sharp drop in stock prices. This can easily destroy one’s portfolio.
Currently, I prefer growth stocks which pay sustainable dividends which makes the wait for the growth story to play out more palatable. Financial theory tells us that a firm can only grow at sustainable growth rate which is derived from the product of its retention ratio (1 – dividend payout) and its ROE. Thus, it is usual to see growth companies paying little dividends so that it can use the retained earnings to grow the business. Thus, I believe the only way to get a good dividend yield, yet not needing a high payout ratio is to buy the stock at a low PE. However, it is rare to see growth companies trading at such valuations, but when the time comes, it might be very rewarding.
Warren Buffet quotes, “I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.” It might be easier if we keep investing simple by focusing on stocks which are easy to understand and practising a margin of safety before going in.
The Restful Farmer 