Sale of GLP & Purchase of Addvalue Tech

As news about GLP’s buyout continued to surface and finally seemed to have reached an agreement, I realised that I did not blog about the sale of my shares earlier. On 19/5/17, I sold off my shares at a price of $2.91, giving me a gain of ~31% based on my earlier purchase price of $2.20. I sold my shares as I felt there was still much uncertainty about the buyout price, and the risk-reward ratio was getting less attractive with the surge in its share price. Nevertheless, although I feel it is indeed a strong company to hold for the long term, this buyout offer did give me a good return and I am grateful for that. On hindsight, I should have waited (the final offer price was $3.38, not inclusive of dividends!), but we always have to make the best decision we can at that point of time. Just like in a game of poker. ūüėȬ†On 15/7/17, I continued to add to my investment in ISEC Healthcare at $0.33, as I feel it is still undervalued as compared to the industry. I had wanted to add more at $0.315 but was greedy and decided to queue at $0.31 instead. Unfortunately, my bid did not get through. At $0.33, its absolute PE is still high, but I am rather optimistic about this. Let’s visit this space again in time to come.

 

On 21/7/17, I bought into Addvalue Tech at a price of $0.049. I feel the risk reward ratio is attractive to me at the current price, and the recent entry into the Thai market for its iFleetONE products is good progress. Catalysts remain the sale of its subsidiary Addvalue Communications, contract wins for its iFleetONE product and commercialisation of its Inter-Satellite Data Relay System. Nevertheless, the firm has been loss making for the last few years, and it might take some time before the numbers are back in the black again. This is a speculative position, and I will consider selling if losses continue and their business divisions do not show signs of growth. As this is still not my typical kind of investment, my stake is very small. Position sizing is very important in portfolio management.

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Purchase of ISEC Healthcare & Valuetronics Holdings

On 2/6/17, I bought into ISEC Healthcare at a price of $0.34.¬†International Specialist Eye Centre (ISEC) is a comprehensive medical eye care service provider based in Malaysia and Singapore, whose¬†vision is to provide high quality, compassionate, world-class eye care at affordable level. It is a net cash company (~$21m) with no debts, and is currently trading at a PE of 26x FY16 earnings. This may seem high at first glance, but I like the management’s opportunistic acquisitions at pretty decent prices, eg. the acquisition of JLM GP and aesthetic clinics at a PE of 12 to complement its current operations. From my interactions with medical professionals, eye surgery is seen as a lucrative business, and this is reflected in ISEC’s strong net margins of ~20% compared to the estimated industry average of ~13%. The company has seen increasing revenues in the past 5 years, but this has not necessarily resulted in rising profits due to the firm’s loss-making Mount Elizabeth Novena Specialist Center. With the cessation of operations in 2015 along with contributions from new acquisitions like SSEC (Southern Specialist Eye Center Sdn Bhd) in Malaysia, profits in 2016 rebounded strongly from $2.8m in 2015 to $6.4m in 2016. ISEC intends to continue expanding in Malaysia and into the region. Countries like Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines and China are targets. At an annual dividend of $0.011 per share, the company is trading at a 3.23% dividend yield at my purchase price of $0.34.

On the same day, I bought more of QAF at a price of $1.355 as I still felt it presented value, especially with the ongoing strategic review of its primary production business underway. With the purchase, QAF is one of the more significant holdings in my portfolio.

On 12/6/17, I purchased shares of Valuetronics at $0.765 after its shares were sold off sharply, possibly due to the drop in US tech shares the night before. I have been eyeing Valuetronics for some time, but its recent gains have made it hard for me to pull the trigger, especially from the valuation perspective. Valuetronics is an integrated electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider with key businesses in consumer electronics (CE), and industrial and commercial electronics (ICE). Honestly, I still feel I lack the competence to understand the semi conductor and electronics industry, and these include my investments in Micro-Mechanics and InnoTek. However, I find comfort in their management, especially Micro-Mechanics’. As for Valuetronics, I am optimistic as I believe it is a beneficiary of two major trends in IOT and autonomous driving. In 2016, there was a steep fall in revenues and earnings due to the exit from the low margin CE LED business. This used to be a big business for the company. However, it was not long lasting, as management steered the company back to growth with the introduction of new products, like smart lighting with Internet-of-Things (IOT) features. I must admit that the comeback and return to growth was indeed quick. At my purchase price, the company is trading at a PE of ~12 and a yield of 5.2%, based on a FY17 dividend of HKD$0.20. The company is net cash, with around ~$130m in cash. Valuations are not exactly compelling for an OEM provider, ¬†Let’s see how this company performs in the coming quarters.

With the recent purchases, I am around ~80% invested based on my investment portfolio, and around 60% invested based on my total portfolio, which includes my emergency savings. I am still building up my cash cushion, so I will need to save more in the coming months.

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Updates to my Portfolio

                                                                                  

Recently, there have been some updates to my portfolio. On 16/5/17, upon waking up, I made a hasty decision and bought into Golden Energy Resources at $0.44 after its positive earning release. I intended to do a short term trade as I thought the market would react positively to the results. I was proved wrong and the share price dipped below my purchase price. Fortunately, I was presented the opportunity to exit a few days after on the 19/5/17 at $0.445, giving me a minute loss of 0.47% after taking into consideration commissions. I will have to be more disciplined in my trades, and stick to what works in the long run rather than wild guesses at where the stock prices will head in the short term. I guess Howard Marks did make his impression on me, especially in the area of risk management. In the same regard, I sold off Alliance Mineral on the 25/5/17, pocketing a small gain of 4.06% at a price of $0.37. I realised that investing in these two commodity plays caused unrest within me, and I often found myself continually checking their share prices within the day, hoping for a quick gain. Perhaps my temperament is not suited for highly volatile stocks, of which commodity companies are a large part of. Upon further introspection, I realise that a main reason why I fretted over Alliance Mineral was because of the uncertainty that shrouds it. The company might continue to rise sharply in the next few months if things work out in its favour, but there is nothing currently set in stone; which makes it so risky. I guess the litmus test for me in ascertaining whether or not to hold onto a stock is to see whether I find myself worrying over it as I go to bed. Having sold off these two stocks, I did actually breathe out a sigh of relief.On 22/5/17, I bought into InnoTek Ltd at a price of $0.37. InnoTek is a precision metal components manufacturer serving the consumer electronics, office automation, and mobility device industries. The company was loss making in 2014 and 2015 and had turned around in the previous year due to a change in management. Profits were growing from quarter to quarter in FY16 and I was interested in the company as it was trading at a PB ratio of 0.68, PE of 7.3, and an ex-cash PE of 4.9, which was attractive to me. Moreover, its turnaround does look legit, and its ROE in the last FY was around 9.23%, which is encouraging considering it is net cash and holds a significant amount of cash on its balance sheet. At a distribution of $0.005 per share, it is yielding around 1.35% at my purchase price. The company had also given its first dividend in 3 years, as it was loss making previously. I am looking forward to a better FY17 under the leadership of Mr Lou Yiliang, who is the current CEO of the company.

 

On the next day, I purchased shares in Boustead Projects at $0.86 as I felt it was undervalued after analysing a report by CIMB. I will not go too much into details as the report is comprehensive and talks about the moat that the company possesses in the industrial design space. The firm is the market leader in the industrial real estate D&B field, with a solid track record in delivery of high spec¬†built-to-suit industrial facilities to MNCs and local customers across industries including aerospace, pharmaceutical, high-tech manufacturing and logistics. It has amassed a portfolio of 18 cashflow generative industrial assets and secured partnerships with investment funds to develop industrial projects in Singapore and China. As mentioned in the report, “Being a knowledge-based business with all construction works carried out by subcontractors, the D&B business of BP carries very little fixed assets and does not have large overhead expenses (it has no foreign labour quota issue as faced by many construction firms); this allows BP to manage its cost efficiently.¬†Apart from the flexible cost management, we believe another advantage of the D&B model is the self-financing feature of its projects – BP typically receives upfront payment from clients before it pays its subcontractors based on work performed. As such, we think BP‚Äôs payment terms are more favourable than those of general construction contractors, which usually have to put aside a sizeable amount of cash for project financing purposes.”¬†As a result of its high value adding design services, the company has been able to command strong gross margins, ranging from 14%-20% as compared to single digit margins of general construction companies.¬†

If the report is indeed accurate, then the market may not be recognising the full potential of the company which possesses a superior business model yet trading at a significant discount to developers and REITs. Based on my entry price, and using CIMB’s RNAV of $1.73, it is trading at a price to RNAV of ~0.5. The company is also net cash, which is something one would hardly see in developers or REITs. It is giving total dividends of $0.025 a share, comprising of a final dividend of $0.015 and a special dividend of $0.01. There might be plans to launch a REIT in the near future, but I am not banking on that. In summary, the company is attractive to me mainly due to its undervaluation despite having a much stronger business model as compared to its peers.

 

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Sale of AEM Holdings and Purchase of QAF Limited

On 9/5/17, I sold off most of my stake in AEM Holdings at a price of $2.63. Due to the 1 for 2 bonus issue, my average cost was $0.58. This gave me a return of ~352% in a span of approximately 4 months. AEM had a really good run, and was my first 4-bagger. I sold most of my shares off as it made up a significant proportion in my portfolio and I wanted to rebalance it. With that, the remaining shares in AEM are free-of-cost.

On the same day, I bought a small stake into QAF at a price of $1.38. Not many would know of the company, but I’m sure many would have heard or eaten its¬†“Gardenia” brand of breads. I have always wanted to own a piece of QAF, having been a consumer of its products since young. However, I have always steered away as I was not comfortable with its business in primary production. Rivalea, its business unit, is the largest producer of pork meat in Australia, and also a large exporter of pork products internationally. I admit there are¬†economies of scale being the largest in the country and also by having a vertically integrated operation, but I feel that the business is afterall a commodity business. It is still a price taker, and the volatility in feed and sow prices can make or break a quarter. Returns on agricultural businesses aren’t fantastic, as usually huge assets (land, machinery) are required to make such an operation sustainable. Thus, when the company announced that it was conducting a strategic review pertaining to Rivalea through a full sale or a listing, my eyes lit up. I believe QAF would be a leaner and stronger business if it focuses more on the expansion of its bakery business in the near future. Competition is intense, but I’m confident the strong brand of its Gardenia products would help it grow. At my purchase price of $1.38, the company is trading at a PE of 13 and yielding 3.62%, assuming a yearly distribution of $0.05. I nibbled for this stock, as it is still not considered cheap to me. Nevertheless, I’m sure the¬†bread would taste even better now. ūüôā

 

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Updates to my Portfolio

During the past few weeks, I have made some updates to my portfolio:

On 10/4/17, I purchased shares of¬†AP Oil at a price of $0.27. AP Oil is a value play to me. Its PE is 12.7, PB is 0.8 and is currently giving me a yield of ~4.6% based on my purchase price. It is net cash, and cash in fact makes up ~86% of its market cap. AP Oil has been looking around to deploy its cash hoard. The CEO frankly mentioned that the company is in a business that has low growth prospects. He also said, ‚ÄúWe have grown organically for the past 10 years, and now we are at a stage where we can take risks and not die.‚Ä̬†Recently, it invested RMB25 million ($5.1 million) in a joint venture that provides financial leasing services in Chongqing, China. This deal is interesting in that it gives AP Oil downside protection + upside participation. Two key clauses were included in the JV agreement: 1) Put Option: After 1 Jan 2018, AP Oil will have the right to sell-back its stake to Zongshen at an agreed market valuation (determined by an approved valuer) at not less than the initial capital contribution of RMB25m. This creates a sort of capital guarantee for AP Oil. 2) Tag-along rights: That ensures AP Oil is able to participate in the same kind of upside as Zongshen should they decide to sell their stake in the JV to a third party. These are deals which tell us that management is savvy at the negotiation table. Revenues and margins might drop in the coming years due to low growth and volatility in selling prices while management tries to diversify the business.¬†Nevertheless, its huge cash hoard is reassuring.

On the same day, I purchased shares in Alliance Mineral at $0.35. As the company was not profit-making yet, I bought a small amount purely as a speculation play – it is and remains the smallest constituent in my portfolio. To me, the rewards of seeing the company successfully hitting its targets one by one was worth the high risk involved. However, my risk averse nature prevented myself from investing more. Enough has¬†been mentioned about the company online so I will not go into the details. Let’s see how this works out in time to come.

On 19/4/17, I bought more into Spackman Entertainment at a price of $0.152 as I felt that the stock was being unfairly penalised for its CEO’s lawsuit. The tension in the Korean Peninsula did not make things any better. Spackman has issued a positive profit guidance for the upcoming quarter and I believe that the company is slowly making progress forward with its acquisitions. Will its upcoming movie – Golden Slumber be a hit? Only time will tell. What I do know, is that Zip Cinema has a very good track record in its producer – Eugene¬†lee.

Lastly, on 25/4/17, I purchased shares in Bund Center Investment at a price of $0.82. Bund Center Investment is a value-yield play, similar to that of AP Oil. It owns the Bund Center office tower and the Westin Bund Center Shanghai hotel in Shanghai; as well as the Golden Center Shopping Mall in Ningbo. As the company adopts a conservative accounting policy of valuing its properties at cost less accumulated depreciation, the current assets are carried in its books at SGD407m, while the carrying value is around SGD1946m according to an analyst report. This makes my purchase price of $0.82 around 31% of its RNAV of $2.58. It is currently in a net cash of $61 million, and is debt free. It also generates strong cashflows of around $70million a year of which an average of $51million goes to dividends. This is $0.067 a share, representing a yield of ~8.17% at my purchase price.

As my recent purchases have shown, I have been looking more at value stocks, especially now when markets and optimism have climbed. I am currently more averse to investing in growth plays, as I feel my portfolio has enough growth stocks in it. As markets continue to rise, we need to be more careful and cognizant of the risks that lie ahead, one of which I feel is overconfidence Рthe pride before the fall.

 

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Sale of TunePro & Kingboard Copper Foil and Purchase of Micro-Mechanics Holdings

Over the past week, I made a couple of transactions in the market. Firstly, on 30/3/17, I sold off TunePro at 1.41RM, giving me a loss of 12.4%, but as the SGD had appreciated against the RM during this period, I made a total loss of 19.19%. This goes to show how currency risks can potentially affect your portfolio returns. I sold off my shares because I became¬†unsure of¬†the competitive advantage the company possessed after listening to an interview with the CEO. Moreover, I did not like the fact that management expenses increased so much causing¬†its profits to drop substantially¬†in 4QFY16. Currently, the share price has dropped to an attractive level, but I would not be comfortable holding onto it due to the two reasons above.A couple of days later on the 3/4/17, I sold off all my shares in Kingboard Copper Foil at $0.40. This gave me a total return of 23.72% within 5 weeks. I sold off my stake as the appeal went in the company’s favour which was essentially a game changer in my initial speculation. Furthermore, I did not want to¬†wait for the company to buy over my shares just to save on transaction costs as I was eyeing a few counters and wanted to be able to act when the opportunity arose. Overall, I feel it was a very lucky bet which materialized within a short time.Lastly, I purchased a stake in Micro-Mechanics Holdings at a price of $1.05. The company¬†designs, manufactures and markets high precision tools, parts and assemblies for the semiconductor, medical, aerospace and other high technology industries. The industry is competitive, but what attracted me was the quality of the management. There are a few interviews and articles written online about the strength of the management, and this has been clearly shown in the results of the company. The CEO, COO and CFO have been with the company for a long time, and¬†the CFO has shown his prudence in managing the finances of the company by steering away from debt and derivatives. In 2008, he mentioned that, “We understand the semi-conductor industry is not a straight line business. It is one of the reasons why the firm has paid up for its three buildings in Singapore, Malaysia and the United States. If there is downtime, we just pay the salaries. Having no debt is a buffer for the bad times.”¬†He was also quoted saying, “Every week, all sales are sold into forward contracts with the banks. In addition, the company tries to sell in local currencies.‚ÄėIt‚Äôs simple and conservative. We didn‚Äôt listen to banks which tried to sell us some derivatives. I tell my boss, forex we can‚Äôt earn but we try to minimize the loss,”.

The company is net cash and has been churning out¬†healthy¬†and increasing cashflows throughout the years. Group revenue and net profit has shown a general increase since FY12, although there was a slight dip in FY16. Moreover, gross margins have been increasing while¬†operating expenses have been on a decreasing trend since 2012. These are all indicators of a well managed company. Annualised FY17 ROE is 26.2%, a respectable figure considering there is no leverage being used. At my purchase price, Micro-Mechanics is¬†trading at a TTM ex-cash PE of ~10 and dividend yield of 5.7% based on last year’s dividend of $0.06. This is definitely not a cheap price, but what I would consider as a fair price to pay for a well-managed¬†company.

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.

Purchase of Kingboard Copper Foil, Tai Sin Electric & Best World

kingboard

On 23/2/17, I purchased shares in Kingboard Copper Foil at $0.32. My thesis for this trade is a speculative special situation play as the risk reward ratio seems to be attractive. My hesitation did actually cause me to miss the rally from $0.29, but I still felt its current price was undervalued. The company is currently pursuing an appeal against a court ruling that did not rule in its favour. A further EY¬†report sought by the company has shown findings that are consistent with the court’s ruling. In essence, if the company loses the appeal, there is a possibility that the majority shareholders will have to buy out the shares held by the minority shareholders, at a price to be determined. Currently, the¬†NAV of the company is around $0.67, which might provide an indication of where negotiations might¬†anchor towards. The hearing is set for March, and this is a very short term speculative bet, probably the most speculative trade I am entering into so far.

tai-sin-electric-limitedOn the same day, I also purchased shares in Tai Sin Electric at $0.405. The company produces and supplies materials to the construction industry, like¬†cables, switchboards, electrical products and accessories, along with a test and inspection arm. According to an article on The Edge Singapore, it commands a 30% share in Singapore’s cable manufacturing market and its testing and inspection business is the second-largest in the country. It is a potential beneficiary of increased public infrastructure¬†spending in the region. I have been impressed with Tai Sin’s stability and its management’s ability to grow the business steadily over the years. Revenues and earnings have grown in four out of the past five years. The company was also profitable during the crisis years of 2008-2009. In a 2010 interview with The Edge Singapore, Bobby Lim, who used to run the company and is the father of the current CEO, mentioned that one of his biggest takeaways from investing in other companies is to never over-borrow to expand the business. I am optimistic about their overseas expansion into neighbouring markets in Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, which is experiencing a construction boom. In the previous year, revenue from Vietnam almost doubled.¬†At my purchase price, PB is around 1.07 and PE is around 7.63. Tai Sin is more of a yield play to me, with dividend yield around 5.8% at my purchase price. The company has also reached a net cash position of $3.2 million as at end 1QFY2017.

best-world-international-limitedMy last purchase of the day was in¬†Best World¬†at $1.995. To be honest, I have been skeptical of Best World’s growth, as the company has just grown tremendously¬†in¬†the past year. A lot of reports have been written online about the prospects of the company, and I shall not go into detail. To me, I feel that buying shares of Best World now may be abit delayed, but I wanted to be sure that its growth in China was materializing, and not just a rosy picture painted by management. The recent earnings release answered my doubts, as China’s¬†quarterly revenue grew tremendously from the previous year, ie. 143%, and FY16 revenue grew 193% yoy. I still feel that the stock could rerate upwards as it obtains more recognition from investors. At my purchase price, shares of Best World are trading at a PE of 15.9, which I feel is not expensive considering its room for growth. Dividend yield is around 2.5% at my purchase price. Best World is a growth stock, but as I am still wary of companies which do most of their business in China, I will be¬†keeping a close eye on this.

 

Disclaimer: The author owns shares in the abovementioned company. The ideas expressed in this blog should not be construed as an enticement to buy or sell the securities, commodities or assets mentioned. The accuracy or completeness of the information provided cannot be guaranteed. Readers should carry out independent verification of information provided. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss howsoever arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of actions taken based on ideas and information found in this blog.